Future Changes in Global Runoff and Runoff Coefficient From CMIP6 Multi‐Model Simulation Under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 Scenarios

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract This paper assesses the performances of runoff (Ro) and coefficient ( α , ratio to precipitation) simulations from 23 models during historical period then projects their future changes under two emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Compared with UNH/GRDC Ro dataset (0.82 mm day −1 ), multi‐model median (MME) 1995–2014 produces a comparable global mean magnitude (0.80 displays similar spatial distribution Ro, also well captures seasonal cycles at both basin scales. The MME is projected be increased by 0.01–0.02 (SSP1‐2.6) 0.02–0.10 (SSP5‐8.5) twenty‐first century. Regional hotspots for strong increasing appear across most areas northern high latitudes, Africa, southeastern Asia, inter‐model consistency. slightly decreased (−0.17 −0.63%) except long‐term SSP5‐8.5 (0.26%). Although signs vary river basins, periods, scenarios, more than half (7 out 12) basins are decrease. uneven distributions over land related response multiple hydroclimatic variables warming. Given regions inconstancy change precipitation, we speculate that affected complicated processes warrant further investigations physical‐based approaches.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2328-4277']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002910